Overfit
Trading experiments, probability notes, general thoughts, and market postmortems from a college freshman.
Prediction markets. Crypto bots. Calibration. Backtests. Drawdowns.
Latest Notes
Loading notes...
Experiment Log
| Date | Experiment | Market | Status | Sample | Result | Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Kalshi BTC/crypto YES bot | Kalshi | Failed | 508 trades | -$99.07 | Cheap YES contracts leaked capital faster than the model edge could prove itself. |
Research Areas
Prediction Markets
Kalshi, Polymarket, binary contracts, event odds, market calibration.
Trading Bots
Paper execution, logging, backtests, scanners, alerting, PnL analysis.
Probability Notes
Expected value, variance, break-even win rate, overfitting, drawdowns.
About
I’m a freshman studying math and CS building market bots and other trading systems. This site is where I document what I test, what breaks, and what the data says afterward. I am currently a freshman at Ohio University, but I plan on transferring in 1-2 years. This website is still very new and a WIP, *Please bare with me.*
Follow
Get new experiment notes when I publish them.
No provider configured yet. This currently opens an email draft.